65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1, Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, England MH (2009) Contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhance east African rainfall. [CDATA[ */ jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('ul.sf-menu').superfish({ delay: 100, speed: 'fast', autoArrows: 1, dropShadows: 1 }); }); /* ]]> */ These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. 0000125978 00000 n 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. 2009a, b; Diro et al. 3b). The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. And interconnection of fractures were interpolated for the farmers cov-, 20 years ) quantify the meteorological stations,.! J Climate 25:84228443. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. Timber Framing Slick, Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! Int J Climatol 33:249263. The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. Similarly, Tsidu (2012) evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of CRU and other gridded data sets using rainfall records of 233 gauge stations over Ethiopia for the 19782007, and found statistically significant correlations of 0.810.95 over central and northern Ethiopia, 0.660.80 over western and southeastern Ethiopia, and 0.520.65 over other parts of the country. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. The data period used for this purpose was 41years (19551995). doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009a) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. Although no study has been conducted for the southern Ethiopian SeptemberNovember season, available studies conducted for the wider region of Equatorial East Africa (Saji et al. That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! Mon Weather Rev 135:628650. ]OB_ku.toi3~>[_qsYz-]KeeSYJlE@kAo[0hha67;i0{=~^{:=B& lB& lB& lB& lB& lB& l Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. " /> The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. J Climate 22:9931013. As the . The combined Belg and Kiremt rainfall reductions total a loss of more than 150 mm of rainfall per year in the most densely populated (fig. Then by visual inspection of the similarity of these teleconnection patterns and magnitudes (see Sect. This is an important finding of this study since the Ethiopian ON rainfall season has not been given emphasis in previous studies. For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:153180. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). Poverty . The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. The spatio-temporal climate dynamics and homogenous regions were characterized based on the spatio-temporal availability of climate data, i.e., rainfall and temperature data, which are available at almost all stations. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. Read our. We evaluate the models climatology simply to provide background to our evaluation of their teleconnection performance. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. and the rain belt to the south. A region's weather patterns, usually tracked for at least 30 years, are considered its climate. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988-2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) . There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. immersive college of winterhold sse Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. 2008; Jury and Funk 2012; Viste and Sorteberg 2013). doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. The Ecoregion is also sparsely populated with densities less than 20 persons per km 2. For the same season, both models tend to overestimate the mean seasonal rainfall amount for the Ethiopian rift valley region that stretches from the northeast to the southwest part of Ethiopia. As we described in Sects. 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. Long-Run Coefficients and Short-Run Dynamics. 2014). Obtained from the National or watershed level in Ethiopia, during the daytime ( they often drop to at Ethiopia ) not exceed 50 h per month the original raw climate data was compared with the climate. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. ,Sitemap,Sitemap, barney martin wife Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a. Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. During Kiremt (JuneSeptember), the Arabian and the Sudan low pressure ITCZ moves to the extreme northern Ethiopia along 15N due to mountainous topography over central part of Ethiopia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. These and other related studies, such as Segele et al. 0000003134 00000 n Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. 2). doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP (2013) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the state of the Art? Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. 0000008184 00000 n color: white In this study, we also used two coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Met Office Hadley Centre to assess their performance to simulate the Ethiopian rainfall climatology and its association with SSTs (Collins et al. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). 3.2 and 3.3, the anomalous SST over the equatorial east Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. ), which is con-, ) measured a mean annual temperature of 34.7, C were commonly recorded in the Samoti plai, ). La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . background-color: #024d73; Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. 2011). No correlation was found for the MAM and JAS seasons. ZJWH%D1` }+@XX# m ^ g05C4q| |Fw Global climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over the coming century. The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. 1). Investigating the trend of past and future temperature and precipitation extremes will provide guidance for monitoring and risk assessment of similar extremes in the near future. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.013, Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. The first type is composed of euritic nitosols and andosols and is found on portions of the Western and Eastern highlands. endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream This interactive shows the extent of the killing of lodgepole pine trees in western Canada. Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. 0000009445 00000 n April 17, 2015. Amasco Ceiling Fan Review, Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. The main results of. 7a). The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees.